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Market & Pricing Report - November 2023
Energy bills are driven by both the price of energy on the wholesale market and Third-Party Costs (TPCs). TPCs include non-energy costs set by the government, network (the National Grid), policy and system costs and electricity transmission/distribution costs.
The biggest single cost on a bill is the price of the wholesale energy (Commodity). Before the energy crisis the wholesale cost of energy made up approximately 40% of an electricity bill and 70% of a gas bill, with the remainder being third party charges (non-commodity). Commodity costs have been continuously rising in recent years and can be extremely volatile. Currently, with the latest rise in wholesale costs mean that they now make up around 78% of a gas bill and 72% of an electricity bill.
This pricing report will focus on the wholesale element of an energy price to help you keep track and understand the wholesale energy market and the factors affecting the price of your contracts.
Overview:
The surge in energy prices can be attributed to the increasing expenses in the global wholesale energy market, influenced by a mix of market instability and global events, including conflicts in Ukraine and Israel.
In addition to these factors, the UK is preparing for snow and wintry showers, with temperatures expected to significantly drop this weekend. The current storage levels, standing at 81%, raise concerns about potential impacts on the market, increasing the supply and demand pressure on prices.
It is advisable to consider securing your next agreement before the market peaks. Prices are expected to escalate further in January with the onset of colder weather. Taking proactive measures now can help mitigate the impact of these anticipated price increases.
Bullish Factors (upward pressure on markets):
- Colder weather
- Demand for heating
- Lower wind output
- Higher interest rates in the US
Bearish Factors (downward pressure on markets):
- Record-high levels of storage across Europe
- LNG flows
- OPEC+ meeting
Gas and Power
The drop in temperature is causing concern that the demand for heating will rise, with the potential to deplete the currently elevated storage levels. Traders are facing the challenge of assessing prospective demand against the resilient storage levels, and the situation is compounded by a low wind output.
Graphs below display gas and electric prices over the last 12 months.
Winter Gas Prices
Anticipated temperatures across a lot of Europe are projected to drop and remain below their five-year averages, potentially lasting until the end of December.
Natural gas prices in Europe have experienced fluctuations this week, with traders assessing heightened heating demand amid colder weather, while EU inventories remain nearly full. The surge in demand is down to below-average temperatures, influencing both heating needs and natural gas consumption.
Despite the assurance provided by full inventories, governments and forecasters emphasise the importance of avoiding complacency. Presently, Europe draws confidence from record-high inventories and strong LNG flows, mitigating concerns of a recurrence of last year’s energy crisis.
However, the landscape remains unpredictable and volatile, with natural gas prices now influenced by factors in distant locations such as Australia, Japan, China, and the United States. While Europe is not expected to face challenges in procuring LNG supply, the determining factor for gas prices is increasingly shifting to these global regions, as highlighted by Reuters market analyst John Kemp.
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Energy Newsletter - Third Party Costs Reach Record High (April 2023)
According to a new report by Drax charges such as Renewables Obligation, Balancing Services Use of
Systems and Distribution Use of Systems are set to soar to an unprecedented high.
Third-party costs (TPCs) are a major concern for businesses and are rising due to inflation and increase in
market volatility. These costs now make up almost 40% of the total energy bills and businesses are bracing
for a surge in their energy bill prices due to this.
As per the forecasts of the National Grid Electricity System Operator (NGESO), total costs for the 2022/23
period are expected to reach £4.7 billion, up from £3.5 billion in the previous year.
Drax’s Sales Director, Paul Miller said: “Just like wholesale energy prices, TPCs are sensitive to what’s
happening in the market and can rise and fall considerably each year.
“Our “Spring 2023 Third Party Cost Guide” found that many of the underlying charges such as RO, BSUoS and
DUoS are all going to rise this year, largely due to inflation and increased volatility within the market.”
BT are ceasing all phone lines!
BT are ceasing all phone lines!!
BT will be ceasing all phone lines by 2025. What does this mean ? You will need to find alternative solutions for any phone requirement.
If this is your phone line at home or office, an emergency lift line, or if your broadband sits on the phone line. These are all examples, and they will simply stop working.
Don’t stress we have been helping both Business and consumers with making the change. It’s seamless and we are experts at it. You never know we can even save you money!!
Update from CCUK
As most of you would have seen in the press the annual RPI increase from both Mobile and Fixed Line operators is applied as of the 01/04 every year. As well documented, this is the largest increase in many years. We wanted to let you know that on or after 31 March 2023, your calls & services will increase by 12.6%.
Like all businesses across the country, our costs are rising significantly because of high inflation. So we have to increase our prices to continue to run and improve our network and give you the most reliable connection possible.
We have tried to keep this increase to a minimum. The Network providers have increased as follows.
EE/BT 14.4 %
Vodafone 14.4 %
Three 14.4 %
02 14.4 %
Talk Talk 14.2 %
Plusnet 14.4 %
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